Robert Stacy McCain (who is totally hilarious, even if you vehemently disagree with him) has a post on an FHA bailout he believes is heading our way. I have no opinion on the matter one way or another because I haven’t really looked into it and I try to have some idea of what is going on before I open my big mouth.
(Although I occasionally fail at even that simple task.)
But one of McCain’s statements made me pretty skeptical (emphasized below):
The FHA is on the hook for lots of “underwater” loans, taken out by low-income homeowners who got special low down-payment deals and — in case you didn’t notice — unemployment hit a 26-year high in August, with no prospect the 9.7% jobless rate will go down any time this year.
Really? No prospect at all? Not even an itsy-bitsy prospect?
I know it is something of a debate as to whether we’re currently seeing a real recovery or something more akin to an extended dead cat bounce. I personally kind of oscillate between the two views and I think there is a good deal of evidence supporting either side.
But I tend to think we’re definately seeing a slowdown in unemployment and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it go down by the end of the year.
So, Mr. McCain, I’m watching you. One of the greatest things about the internet is normal people can go back and see how right or wrong someone was in the past, using this information to judge their future claims.
If unemployment dips below 9.7% by the end of the year, I will make a point that your enormous confidence in the suckiness of the economy was misplaced.
If it does not, I will write a humble post begging your forgiveness. I’m curious to see how this goes.